Below is some prescient SpongeBob writing from June, 2005.
"Section 2, page 34 of the RFP from Transurban and Fluor
RFP Question 14
Strategy to maintain the HOV function of the corridor
Discuss the strategy to maintain the HOV function in the corridor in future years.
Project the anticipated HOV volumes over a 20-year period. Evaluate the expected increase in HOV use relative to the availability of capacity to HOT lane users.
Document the proposed hours of operation for the HOT lanes in the corridor with the hours of HOV function.
Q14.1 Strategy to Maintain the HOV Function of the Corridor
Fluor-Transurban’s draft strategic corridor traffic model has been developed with the ability to forecast HOV 3+ customers as a specific user group. This provides the team with data on HOV 3+ and total BRT/HOT Lane volumes by section in the I-95 corridor and hence the information needed in order to maintain HOV functionality as a critical element of the project.
The draft model runs completed for the planning years of 2015 and 2030 have been run with a preliminary set of tolling strategies derived from an analysis of forecast traffic loadings on the GP and HOT lanes. Further analysis is necessary to optimize the tolling strategy. However, it is now apparent that in order to optimize the performance of the HOV facilities within the BRT/HOT environment would be best achieved by different toll levels for the various sections of the corridor. Clearly, in order to provide easily understood toll conditions for customers the number of toll levels for a single trip needs to be minimized. This requires further investigation and will be part of the detailed analysis to develop tolling products and concepts.
Table Q14-1 provides key information on HOV volumes and BRT/HOT lane performance in the planning years of 2015 and 2030. At this stage there has been no detailed analysis of HOV network changes by year and hence it can be assumed that the volumes in the intermediate years would be approximated by a linear extrapolation process.
(Then there is a table that makes no sense... SB)
Section of maximum HOV volume 1,600 12% 1,800 12% C/D
Section of lowest HOV volume 350 3.8% 360 3.1% B/C
Note: The volume in Table Q14-1 represents the morning peak period volume. In order to estimate the VC ratio this volume has been divided by 3 to give an hourly volume and then raised by 20% to reflect the ‘peak of the peak’ demand.
--snip
And then they have a table showing the current hours of HOV operation.
That’s it! Nothing about how they are going to maintain HOV, or what they’ll do about revenue if HOV fills the lanes first."
Well now here it is 3 years later and we know how they will make up the revenue: your tax dollars from VDOT.
You gotta love these people.
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