HOT and Real Estate Values

HOV3slugger posted this in another thread:

"Today is the last day to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy. On Monday the new laws kick into play.

PS - All kidding aside - tip the driver.
PPS - If the HOT lanes go in and HOV3 stays free it should pick up more drivers.
PPPS - If HOT moves in that 3 bedroom, 2 bath condo in Ballston will start looking real good. Kiss Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania good-bye."

It kind of hit home for me, because I have an oppotunity to purchase a condo in Stafford, and I have to admit the future of HOT is enterring into my thoughts about doing so. If HOT is the disaster I think it is, how many purchasers are going to still find Fredericksburg, Spotsy, and Stafford as desirable as it currently is? Sure, you have the BRAC stuff,, but these military folks are transitory in nature, they are not looking for a permanent home. What do you all think about whether HOT will have an impact on real estate down here?

The current HOT proposals assume people will continue to drive to work everyday. The problem is gas has gone from $1.80 to $2.70 - $3 a gallon in the last three months so driver behavior is still shifting. Right now folks are getting rid of their gas-guzzlers and getting cars that are fuel-efficient. There are more slugs now too. To drive to DC and back to Southern Prince William cost in gas alone about $9 a day. Add parking at about $10 a day and today a driver is paying $19 a day to drive to work, not be mention wear and tear on the car. For the folks who don’t pick up slugs add the toll of say $5 each way and you are up at $29 day, cash out of pocket, just to drive your car to work.

Inflation, higher gas prices, and the congestion in the I-95 corridor are all having an adverse affect on real estate prices in the lower counties. The current proposals for HOT lanes are not the solution to the I-95 corridor problem. With gas at the current prices folks want to take mass transit that is quick and reliable. My suggestion is three fold: 1) Extend the current HOV lanes to Fredericksburg, (we need them not only for rush hour but for weekend traffic too, 2) Install an elevated high speed rail down I-95 to drop folks off at the Rosalyn Metro and then have it go out I-66 to Haymarket, and 3) have local lanes on I-95 (regular lanes) that start just north of Dumfries truck stop and end just north of Lorton’s exit. Likewise, south bound lanes would have local lanes start just south of Springfield and end at the Dumfries truck stop – hence the left two lanes of I-95 will be through lanes that should not get congested and move at 60MPH+. These changes will make the real estate down the I-95 corridor desirable once again.

As for buying the condo, make sure you like the commute. If you live in Prince William and you’re thinking of moving to Stafford, I would definitely drive to Stafford first thing in the morning and leave from the condo to see if you like the commute and do the same in the evening. If you can handle the commute, you like the condo, and the price is right I’d say go for it. Interest rates are on the rise.

I think at the point that drivers have to pay for HOT - they will either form a carpool and split the cost, ask for "donations" from slugs or go it alone. Slugs will either pay or go to the bus or another form of transport. I do quite a good share of slugging and will go wherever the cars go. I'm not picky for the most part. If the day comes that I will have to pay, so be it. I'll do whatever is most convenient, economical and works. I'm not adverse to the bus and/or metro and in fact use both along w/ slugging and driving. Whatever gets me to the office. I think most people are like that.